Weekly Mortgage & Market Update
Vancouver is a Buyer’s Market, But Bond Yields Are Rising. Here’s What That Means for You.
There is a genuine tug of war happening in the Canadian real estate market right now, and understanding both sides of it is the difference between making a well timed move and missing the window entirely.
On one side, Metro Vancouver has roughly 7.1 months of housing supply, with softer prices and more negotiating room than buyers have seen in years. On the other side, the five year Government of Canada bond yield has been moving higher, adding upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions. If you are thinking about buying, renewing, or refinancing, you need to understand both.
The Opportunity: Vancouver is a Buyer’s Market
Metro Vancouver has roughly 7.1 months of housing supply, based on 17,017 active listings and 2,390 sales reported for June. A market with more than six months of supply is commonly described as favouring buyers. The composite benchmark price is $1,099,100, which is 6% lower than a year ago.
What that means on the ground is more listings to choose from, more time to complete your due diligence, and more room to negotiate price, conditions, and terms. That combination does not appear in Vancouver very often. For buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment, this is one of the better entry points in recent years.
“For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, this is one of the better entry points we have seen in a number of years. The conditions right now genuinely favour buyers in a way they have not for a while.”
The Wrinkle: Bond Yields Are Moving Up
Here is the part worth paying close attention to. The five year Government of Canada bond yield has been moving higher and recently reached approximately 3.28%. That number matters because bond yields influence how lenders price fixed mortgages. When yields rise, fixed mortgage rates can follow.
The real estate side is giving buyers more leverage, while the financing side may be moving in the opposite direction. That tension is why arranging a rate hold can make sense before you start shopping. Rate holds are subject to lender terms and eligibility, but they can provide protection if rates rise while still allowing us to review available options if rates fall.
The Bigger Picture: The Canadian Dollar and Retail Sales
Two other data points are worth noting this week. Speculators increased their bearish positions on the Canadian dollar to approximately US$12.5 billion, the largest net short position among major currencies in the latest reported data. The Canadian dollar has recently traded near C$1.42 per US dollar amid tariff uncertainty and ongoing trade concerns. A weaker dollar can raise import costs and add to inflation pressure, which can affect the Bank of Canada’s room to lower rates.
Canadian retail sales increased 1% in May to $73.7 billion. This was the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Canadians are still spending despite elevated borrowing costs, which may reduce the urgency for additional rate cuts.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15. The next scheduled rate announcement is September 2, 2026.
What This Means for You
If You Are Looking to Buy
The real estate opportunity is real. There is more supply, softer pricing, and more negotiating room. The financing side can move quickly, so consider arranging a rate hold before you start shopping.
If You Are Renewing
If your renewal is coming up in the next six months, now is the time to start the conversation. Bond yields can shift quickly, and earlier preparation usually leaves more options available.
If You Have a Variable Rate
The Bank held its policy rate in July. September 2 is the next scheduled announcement. With retail sales growing and inflation risks still present, a September rate cut is not guaranteed. Plan accordingly.
This Week’s Featured Listing
6779 192 Street, Surrey, BC
5 Bathrooms
3,177 Square Feet
Built in 2010
$1,345,000
A beautifully updated and move in ready coach home in Clayton, Surrey. It is freshly painted inside and out and includes a renovated kitchen with a large island and built in wine fridge. Laminate flooring runs throughout, and the updated bathrooms include electronic mirrors. The redesigned backyard features a pergola. A breezeway connects directly to the double garage with extra outdoor storage.
The basement suite has newer kitchen cabinets, a dishwasher, and a spacious laundry area. The coach house has its own private parking, making this an attractive mortgage helper or multigenerational living property.
| Purchase Price | $1,345,000 |
| Minimum Down Payment | $109,500 |
| Estimated Mortgage Insurance Premium | $51,891 |
| Estimated Total Mortgage | $1,287,391 |
| Illustrative Rate and Term | 3.99% for 3 Years Fixed |
| Illustrative Amortization | 30 Years |
| Estimated Payment Every Two Weeks | $2,819.58 |
| Illustrative Income to Qualify | $234,380 |
This example assumes eligibility for a 30 year insured mortgage, including applicable mortgage insurance premiums. Eligibility, rental income treatment, rates, property costs, qualification, and lender requirements vary. The income figure is an illustration only. Closing costs can be approximately 1% to 4% of the purchase price. Contact Rob for calculations based on your circumstances.
Listing: Robbie Johal PREC | RE/MAX 2000 Realty | 604.825.3079 | View Listing
What’s On This Weekend: July 24 to 26
There is plenty happening across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley this weekend:
Let's talk about your goals