Weekly Mortgage & Market Update
The Economy Beat Expectations. Bond Yields Barely Moved. Here’s What That Means for Your Mortgage.
July 3, 2026 · Weekly Market Update
Strong GDP. Steady Rates. Here’s What to Watch This Summer.
This Week’s Market Note
+0.5%
Apr GDP Growth (MoM)
~3.0%
5-Yr Bond Yield
~50/50
Dec ’26 Rate Hike Odds
Stable
CUSMA Trade Status
Dec ’26 Rate Hike Probability
HoldCoin FlipHike
Strong GDP. Steady Rates. Here’s What to Watch.
Canada’s economy posted real momentum in April, with GDP growing 0.5% month-over-month — the strongest reading since early 2023. After a couple of sluggish quarters, that’s a welcome sign the economy is finding its footing and heading back toward its roughly 2% long-run pace. The catch: a good chunk of that strength came from higher energy prices, so the strong headline doesn’t necessarily mean households are feeling better when they’re paying more at the pump.
Here’s what makes this interesting for mortgage planning. Bond yields barely moved after the release. The Canadian 5-year bond yield is hovering around 3%, tracking closely with the U.S. 10-year, and markets largely shrugged at the stronger GDP print. A rate hike is still viewed as more of a 2027 conversation, with a December move seen as roughly a coin flip.
The backdrop is stable but increasingly data-sensitive. With central banks giving less formal forward guidance, each new economic report has more potential to move rates sharply. If you’re weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, this is a good stretch to have your strategy ready so you can move when the right window opens.
What This Means for You
- Locking in a new mortgage: Conditions are stable right now — a reasonable window to act. The risk is that one strong U.S. data print could move bond yields faster than expected. Being ready to move matters more than trying to time the bottom.
- Renewing: A 3-year fixed keeps your options open without overcommitting in an environment where data is in the driver’s seat. Worth reviewing before defaulting to another 5-year.
- On variable: No change expected from the Bank of Canada through the rest of 2026, but the U.S. Fed is worth watching.
Featured Listing · Forest Glen, Burnaby South
4 – 6176 Elgin Avenue, Burnaby, BC V5H 3S4
Open House · Sun Jul 5
$1,499,900
MLS® R3139119 · 4 Bed · 4 Bath · 2,311 sq ft · Built 2026 · Half Duplex · Freehold Strata
Sun July 5 · 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Brand-new luxury half-duplex in coveted Forest Glen, one of just four residences in an exclusive new collection. Three beautifully finished levels blend modern elegance with everyday functionality. The main floor opens with expansive picture windows and a seamless open-concept great room, with a kitchen anchored by an oversized 9-foot island, premium appliances, custom cabinetry, and quartz counters. Upstairs, three spacious bedrooms include an oversized primary with mountain views. The lower level adds a rec room and flex space. Heat pump and radiant heating, central A/C, Control4 smart home, single-car garage, and additional open parking. Minutes from Metrotown, SkyTrain, Deer Lake Park, and top schools.
4 Bedrooms
4 Bathrooms
2,311 sq ft
New Build 2026
3 Levels
9-ft Island Kitchen
Mountain Views
Heat Pump + Radiant Heat
Central A/C
Control4 Smart Home
2 Parking (1 Garage)
Minutes to Metrotown + SkyTrain
Listing Agents
Adil Dinani
Royal LePage West Real Estate Services
Doris Gee
RE/MAX Crest Realty
604-250-0177
doris@dorisgee.com
Phil Moore
RE/MAX Crest Realty
604-230-3772
phil@philmoore.com
Financing Example
| Purchase price | $1,499,900 |
| Minimum down payment | $124,941.67 |
| CMHC premium | $57,748.24 |
| Total mortgage amount | $1,432,706.57 |
| Mortgage type | 3-yr fixed at 3.99% |
| Amortization | 30 years |
| Monthly payment | $6,804.68 |
A 3-year fixed is a strong fit for the current environment — you get a competitive rate today without locking in for a full 5 years while the rate picture remains data-sensitive.
Purchase prices shown do not include GST, where applicable. Mortgage payment examples are based on the advertised purchase price before GST. If GST applies and is added to the purchase price, a minimum 20% down payment may be required, subject to lender guidelines and borrower qualification. Closing costs typically range between 1–4% of the purchase price and may include, but are not limited to, property transfer tax (where applicable), legal/notary fees, fire insurance, home inspection fees, title insurance, compliance letters, and other closing costs.
Rates are subject to change at any time. This example is for informational purposes only. Individual qualification and terms will vary. Reach out to get your personalized numbers.
This Weekend — July 4–5, 2026
FREE
FIFA Fan Festival at the PNE
Daily through July 19 · PNE Grounds, Vancouver
World Cup knockout stage in full swing. Free match broadcasts on giant screens, live entertainment, food vendors, and family activities. Up to 25,000 fans on match days.
FREE + TICKETED
Vancouver Jazz Festival — Final Weekend
Through July 5 · Various venues, Vancouver
Last chance for one of Canada’s premier music festivals. Over 30 free shows and workshops, plus Pay What You Can performances. Closing weekend concerts still ticketed.
FREE
Gastown Sunday Set — Kickoff
Sun Jul 5 · Water Street, Gastown
Water Street goes car-free for the launch of a new summer tradition. Live music, food, art, and shopping. Returns every Sunday through September 6.
ADMISSION VARIES
Vancouver Comic Arts Festival
Sat Jul 4 & Sun Jul 5 · Roundhouse Community Centre
Comics, graphic novels, and illustrated art from local and international creators. Exhibits, panels, and hands-on workshops for all ages.
Coming up: The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision is scheduled for July 15, 2026. With GDP showing momentum and bond yields holding steady, all eyes will be on any signals about December.
RS
Rob Skoko
Mortgage Broker · BC & Alberta
MAXIMUM Mortgage Solutions – MA – abw
604.771.4085 ·
rob@skoko.ca
skokomortgages.ca
The information in this newsletter is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or mortgage advice. Mortgage rates, terms, and financing examples are subject to change and individual qualification. All financing figures shown are estimates based on the information provided. Purchase prices shown do not include GST, where applicable. Mortgage payment examples are based on the advertised purchase price before GST. If GST applies and is added to the purchase price, a minimum 20% down payment may be required, subject to lender guidelines and borrower qualification. Closing costs typically range between 1–4% of the purchase price and may include, but are not limited to, property transfer tax (where applicable), legal/notary fees, fire insurance, home inspection fees, title insurance, compliance letters, and other closing costs. Please consult with a licensed mortgage professional to discuss your specific situation. Rob Skoko is a licensed mortgage broker in BC and Alberta. MAXIMUM Mortgage Solutions – MA – abw.
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