Canada Loses 68,000 Jobs, but Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Still Rising

Canada’s latest employment report delivered a clear warning about the economy, but it did not bring immediate relief for every mortgage borrower. Employment fell sharply in September and markets no longer expect the Bank of Canada to increase its policy rate in October. At the same time, elevated bond yields have pushed some fixed mortgage rates higher. Metro Vancouver apartment sales also declined, creating a market with more negotiating room for prepared buyers.

Weak Employment Changes the Bank of Canada Outlook

Canada lost approximately 68,000 jobs in September, marking a second consecutive monthly employment decline. The unemployment rate increased from 6.4% to 6.5%, while the employment rate fell to 60.6%.

The weakness was not evenly distributed. Employment fell by approximately 20,000 in British Columbia, while Alberta added approximately 23,000 jobs. Youth employment declined significantly, and losses were also recorded in educational services, health care and social assistance, and manufacturing.

Markets no longer expect the Bank of Canada to increase its policy rate at the October 28 announcement. However, inflation concerns remain, and market pricing still reflects the possibility of a quarter point increase in December.

That provides some near term relief for variable rate borrowers, since variable mortgage rates respond to changes in the Bank of Canada policy rate. It is not a promise that borrowing costs are about to fall. The Bank will continue to assess inflation, employment, wages, economic growth, energy prices, and trade conditions before making its decision.

Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Still Moving Higher

BMO increased its standard three year and five year fixed mortgage rates by 0.20 percentage points. Its standard three year fixed rate moved to 4.94%, while its standard five year fixed rate increased to 5.14%.

These are standard rates and may differ from insured, insurable, conventional, promotional, renewal, or individually negotiated pricing. The move is still important because it shows how elevated bond yields can increase lender funding costs even when weak economic data reduces expectations for a Bank of Canada increase.

Fixed and variable mortgage rates do not always move together. Variable pricing is directly influenced by the Bank of Canada policy rate. Fixed pricing is more closely connected to bond yields, funding costs, competition, risk, and lender margins.

If you are buying, renewing, or refinancing soon, consider securing a rate hold early and confirm the available pricing before making a decision. If rates improve before closing, an eligible lower rate may be requested, subject to lender policies and approval terms.

Metro Vancouver Apartment Sales Fall Almost 19%

Greater Vancouver Realtors reported 1,717 residential sales in September. That was 8.4% lower than one year earlier and approximately 25% below the ten year seasonal average.

Apartment sales recorded the largest decline, falling 18.6% from September 2025. The composite benchmark price was $1,075,900, down 5.5% annually. The overall sales to active listings ratio was approximately 10.9%, a level that indicates buyers may have more selection and negotiating power.

This does not mean every seller will accept a significant discount. Well located and properly priced homes can still attract interest. Buyers should compare recent sales, review how long a property has been listed, understand the seller’s position, and keep financing conditions in place where appropriate.

For condo buyers, price is only one part of the decision. Strata minutes, depreciation reports, insurance, contingency reserves, planned projects, special levies, bylaws, and the condition of the building can materially affect the cost and suitability of a purchase.

Shell Takes a Stake in the Bay du Nord Project

Shell agreed to acquire a 30% interest in Equinor’s Bay du Nord oil project off Newfoundland and Labrador. The proposed development is estimated at approximately $14 billion, with an investment decision targeted for early 2027 and first production anticipated in 2031.

The project could eventually support employment for Canadian engineers, skilled trades, suppliers, transportation companies, and other service businesses. It is still important to treat future income cautiously until the project receives final approval and employment arrangements are confirmed.

Borrowers who depend on contract, project, overtime, bonus, or resource industry income should keep their employment records current. Lenders may request contracts, employment letters, pay records, tax documents, and evidence that the income is likely to continue.

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