Mortgage News  ·  Mortgages

The Jobs Report Just Got Real. And Your Mortgage Could Feel It.

May 11, 2026  ·  Written by Rob Skoko

Friday’s job numbers from both Canada and the United States were a reminder that economic headlines don’t always tell the full story. When you read the fine print, the picture gets a lot more complicated.

Canada Full-Time Jobs Lost
-46,700
April 2026, unemployment now at 6.9%

US U-6 Unemployment
8.2%
3rd highest reading since September 2021

Consumer Sentiment Index
48.2
University of Michigan, record low in May 2026

Canada Jobs

Canada’s numbers were bad. No other way to say it.

Canada lost 46,700 full-time jobs in April, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.9%. Part-time employment rose slightly, but part-time work doesn’t replace full-time income, and average hourly wages are now growing at only 4.8% year-over-year, down from 5.1% the month before.

The labour market in Canada is softening. That matters directly for the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, and by extension, for your mortgage.

US Reality Check

The US headline looks fine. The full picture doesn’t.

On the surface: 115,000 jobs added, unemployment steady at 4.3%. Sounds okay. But here’s what the headline doesn’t tell you.

U-6 Unemployment hit 8.2% in April 2026
The 3rd highest reading since September 2021. This includes the underemployed, discouraged workers, and those stuck in part-time jobs they didn’t choose.

Since January 2025, the US has lost 1.2 million full-time jobs. Part-time work for economic reasons jumped 450,000 in a single month. The U-6 rate is what many economists consider the most honest measure of where the labour market actually stands, and it’s trending in the wrong direction.

Rates & Bonds

Bad economic news can mean good news for rates, but it’s complicated.

When weak job numbers come out, bond yields tend to drop. Lower bond yields generally mean better fixed mortgage rates. That’s exactly what happened Friday afternoon after the data was released.

But by Monday morning, yields had bounced back up. Why? Rising oil prices and unresolved tensions in the Middle East are both inflationary, and inflation pushes yields higher. The CME FedWatch Tool is currently showing a 75.7% probability that the US Federal Reserve holds rates steady at their December meeting. Rate cuts south of the border aren’t coming anytime soon.

75.7% probability of no Fed rate change at December meeting
The bond market is telling you not to hold your breath for US rate cuts in 2026.

Consumer Confidence

How people feel about the economy is hitting record lows.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a record low of 48.2 in early May 2026, missing market expectations. The current conditions component fell about 9% to 47.8, driven by concerns over high prices and the cost of major purchases.

When confidence drops this far, people pause. They delay decisions. But historically, the borrowers who act thoughtfully when others are hesitant are the ones who tend to come out ahead.

What’s Next

Tomorrow morning brings US inflation data, and it matters for your rate.

Tuesday May 12 at 8:30 AM, the US releases April inflation figures. The market consensus is 3.70% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil and gas price increases driven by the Iran conflict are expected to be a major factor.

This data release will move bond markets. It will affect fixed mortgage rates. And if inflation comes in hotter than expected, the window for favourable rates could tighten further.

Bottom line

The market is uncertain, which is exactly when good advice matters most.

Job losses in Canada, a weakening US labour market under the surface, record-low consumer confidence, and inflation still running well above target. It’s a complicated picture. But complicated markets create opportunity for those who are paying attention. Whether you’re coming up for renewal, thinking about buying, or trying to decide between fixed and variable, this is the kind of environment where the right conversation with a mortgage professional can genuinely save you money.

Sources: RMG Mortgages Morning Bru (Bruno Valko, VP National Sales), May 10, 2026  |  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  |  Statistics Canada  |  CME FedWatch Tool  |  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

RS

Rob Skoko
MAXIMUM Mortgage Solutions

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